Does the number of Eagle Scouts in a team’s home city predict the winner of the Super Bowl?
The question is tantalizing for fans of Scouting and sports: Is there a correlation between the number of Eagle Scouts in a team’s home city and that team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl?
The short answer? Yes, the team with more Eagle Scouts in its hometown is more likely to win the Super Bowl than the team with fewer Eagle Scouts.
As with any math problem, now we must show our work.
How it was done
We looked at the past 25 Super Bowls — from Super Bowl XXVI in 1992 to Super Bowl 50 in 2016.
For each Super Bowl, we tallied the number of Eagle Scouts from each team’s home city during the year of the season.
Take Super Bowl XXX as an example. That 1996 game, which determined the champion of the 1995 season, matched the Dallas Cowboys against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In 1995, the Dallas-based Circle Ten Council had 400 Eagle Scouts, while the Pittsburgh-based Laurel Highlands Council (then called the Greater Pittsburgh Council) had 257. The Cowboys’ home council had more Eagle Scouts, and the Cowboys won the game, 27-17. Score one for the Eagle Scouts.
A winning record
The average number of Eagle Scouts per year for the 25 winning teams was 340.2. The average number for the 25 losing teams was 325.7.
That’s another win for Eagle Scouts.
In head-to-head matchups, the Super Bowl winner came from the city with more Eagle Scouts 13 of the 25 times.
In other words, the team with more Eagle Scouts has a 13-12 record in the past 25 years. Close, but still a winning record for Eagle Scouts.
Super Bowl LI
So how do things look for Sunday’s Super Bowl LI, which determines the champion from the 2016 season?
Well, the Patriots’ Spirit of Adventure Council had 284 Eagles in 2016, while the Falcons’ Atlanta Area Council had 714 Eagle Scouts last year.
If the Falcons win, the record of the team with more Eagle Scouts improves to 14-12. If the Patriots win, we’ll be tied at 13.
So if you haven’t yet picked your team for Sunday’s game, there’s one piece of evidence for you to consider.
The data
Number in bold is higher number of Eagle Scouts that year
| Super Bowl | Winner | Number of Eagles | Opponent | Number of Eagles |
| L | Denver Broncos | 488 | Carolina Panthers | 244 |
| XLIX | New England Patriots | 281 | Seattle Seahawks | 436 |
| XLVIII | Seattle Seahawks | 486 | Denver Broncos | 525 |
| XLVII | Baltimore Ravens | 523 | San Francisco 49ers | 220 |
| XLVI | New York Giants | 161 | New England Patriots | 294 |
| XLV | Green Bay Packers | 313 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 488 |
| XLIV | New Orleans Saints | 96 | Indianapolis Colts | 358 |
| XLIII | Pittsburgh Steelers | 465 | Arizona Cardinals | 1,168 |
| XLII | New York Giants | 148 | New England Patriots | 304 |
| XLI | Indianapolis Colts | 376 | Chicago Bears | 378 |
| XL | Pittsburgh Steelers | 403 | Seattle Seahawks | 416 |
| XXXIX | New England Patriots | 283 | Philadelphia Eagles | 286 |
| XXXVIII | New England Patriots | 258 | Carolina Panthers | 160 |
| XXXVII | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 281 | Oakland Raiders | 170 |
| XXXVI | New England Patriots | 232 | St. Louis Rams | 450 |
| XXXV | Baltimore Ravens | 318 | New York Giants | 291 |
| XXXIV | St. Louis Rams | 470 | Tennessee Titans | 282 |
| XXXIII | Denver Broncos | 390 | Atlanta Falcons | 325 |
| XXXII | Denver Broncos | 332 | Green Bay Packers | 246 |
| XXXI | Green Bay Packers | 242 | New England Patriots | 215 |
| XXX | Dallas Cowboys | 400 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 257 |
| XXIX | San Francisco 49ers | 172 | San Diego Chargers | 297 |
| XXVIII | Dallas Cowboys | 423 | Buffalo Bills | 116 |
| XXVII | Dallas Cowboys | 432 | Buffalo Bills | 103 |
| XXVI | Washington Redskins | 532 | Buffalo Bills | 113 |
Hat tip: Thanks to John Churchill and Nathan Johnson for pulling together this info.
Does the number of Eagle Scouts in a team’s home city predict the winner of the Super Bowl?